The Definitive Play-in Preview
After 175 days, 1230 games, the stretching and tearing of countless ACL’s, MCL’s, PCL’s and meniscuses (menisci?), we’ve finally made it to the end of the 2021/22 regular season. After 6 months of back and forth, it’s now been decided who gets to compete to actually win something in the playoffs.
The last week of the season finished with a bang, the loudest and soonest being the elimination of the Los Angeles Lakers, who failed to do any better than the 11th seed and finished the season with a boorish 33-49 record. There’s already been plenty said about the Lakers in the past week, and I’ve really indulged in my fair share of Laker hate for this entire season, but I’ll just add one more word to the diatribe – lol.
I enjoy the regular season because it’s a chance to distract my eyeballs with near constant consumption of basketball and indulge my much documented love of terrible teams. Some basketball fans might argue that the regular season is so long that it becomes pointless, and ask who is really watching the Wizards play the Pistons at 9am on a Tuesday? The answer is me, sitting at my desk pretending to do work, because I love watching Rui Hachimura run directly towards the rim as if he’s forgotten there’s going to be defenders there to try and stop him.
I will acknowledge the 82 game season is a drag, and I’d be in favour of reducing the schedule to something like 72 or 76 games, but I doubt that will ever happen. You’d either have to convince a bunch of billionaire owners to make 10 games less worth of income, or ask a bunch of millionaire players to give up 10 games worth of salary: good luck.
Even after 82 games, the playoff picture is still being completed. In an artistic sense, someone still needs to go and paint fig leaves over all those tits and dicks.
The play-in tournament is the latest innovation to the playoff format, which gives teams placed 7-10 in the regular season a chance to qualify as the 7th or 8th seed. It was designed as an anti-tanking measure, as well as a gateway for teams that get blown apart early by injury. Just so we’re all on the same page, the play-in is a knockout tournament, with teams playing the following games:
- 7 plays 8 and 9 plays 10;
- The winner of the 7-8 game immediately qualifies at the 7th seed;
- The loser of the 7-8 game plays against the winner of the 9-10 game;
- The winner of that game qualifies as the 8th seed.
In the West, we have the Timberwolves, Clippers, Pelicans and Spurs fighting for a chance to face the Suns or Grizzlies in the first round. In the East, it’s the Nets, Cavs, Hawks and Hornets trying to make it into a first round series against the Heat or Celtics. For whoever makes it to the 8 seed in the West, that’s like winning a bar fight then being booked to fight prime Tyson, but hey, being beat up by the Suns in the playoffs still means you made the playoffs – the Kings would hang a banner for doing that.
East Game 1: Brooklyn Nets (7) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (8)
The Cavs were lucky to make it to the 8th seed after beating the Bucks in their final game of the season, who rested everyone and fell from the 2nd to the 3rd seed, all to avoid a potential first round matchup against Brooklyn – cowards. Boston, meanwhile, will be looking for playoff redemption against Brooklyn, who eliminated them without breaking a sweat last year.
The great tragedy of this game we won’t see the same Cavs team we did in January, when they sat as high as second in the conference. Injuries to Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley and Darius Garland saw this team’s grand hopes of claiming home court advantage slip away from them at the same time as the Bucks and Celtics kicked into gear and made their way into the top 4. Garland and Mobley are back now and look fine, but Allen is still listed as doubtful to play in this game.
We’ve got a reliable predictor of what this game will look like after Clevland travelled to Brooklyn only two games ago, Brooklyn taking the game 118 – 107 behind 36 points from Kevin Durant. Lauri Markannen and Kevin Love have both had great comeback seasons, but the two of them combined don’t make 4/10ths of the defensive impact that Jarrett Allen does, and Durant will kill both of them again on switches and in isolation. Considering that Kyrie Irving will be playing in a high stakes game against his former franchise, plus he’s had a few days rest after struggling to find fitness as a full time player and you could pencil him in for a good 30 or so points.
The Garland-Irving point guard battle will be a fascinating watch: the new favourite son vs the older brother who requested a trade while LeBron was still on the team. Irving tops Garland for offensive ability, but Garland far eclipses him defensively. The problem is, no one is stopping Kevin Durant. When Durant was universally beloved, the saying went that Kevin Durant is not nice. He might not be universally loved anymore, but he’s definitely still not nice. Durant has been bullying everybody since he came back from injury last month, trash talking opponents and fans alike.
I would love to be wrong but I don’t see the Cavs winning this game, even if I spend the entire game barking at my TV. For all the Cavs defensive nous, Brooklyn at their best is a team which will simply outscore even the best defense. Beating Brooklyn is a matter of out-scoring them, at least until a certain missing-in-action point guard and freak defender takes the floor. In the last month, Brooklyn have averaged 120 points a game (very good), while giving up 112 points a game (bad). Kevin Love just scored 32 points in a blazing hot 15 minutes, so anything is possible, but Cleveland will struggle to keep up with the offensive firepower.
I’m taking Brooklyn here, even if it makes me sad.
West Game 1: Minnesota Timberwolves (7) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (8)
There’s a scent emanating from this game even days before it’s played, it’s got a real hint of anaphylaxis about it: the Red-Cordial Timberwolves vs. the Over-Achieving Clippers. I’m taking the Clippers for an upset here and I’m very confident about it.
I wrote about my fear of the Clippers last week, a team with a mix of returning stars, grizzled veterans and resurrected careers all coached by one of the smartest coaches in the league – a guy who could coach a pair of sunglasses to win an NBA game. This is the exact kind of game this team and its assortment of personalities is built for. Are you telling me that Reggie Jackson isn’t licking his lips at the prospect of coming into the Timberwolves arena, full of fans who have only had 1 playoff appearance since 2005, and forcing them to do it all again?
Ty Lue’s coaching strategy is a very nuanced ‘fuck you – beat us’ approach. If the Clippers score with a particular set once, they will run it again and again until the defense solves it, then throw it back in 5 possessions later to check if they remember how they did it. Poor D’Angelo Russell, who to be fair to him is an improved defender this year, is going to be hit by approximately 400 screens in this game and be forced to keep track of who the fuck is the ball-handler as it switches from Jackson to George to Powell to Jackson again.
On the other side of the coin is the confusing, but fun Minnesota Timberwolves, who have changed identities about 15 times this season. First they were an incredible offensive team with a terrible defense, then they fell off a cliff offensively and became a brick wall defensively, then they were amazing on both ends for about a week, then they cycled through those options again.
One of the struggles the T-Wolves faced this season was trying to figure out which of the Towns-Edwards-Russell trio gets their hands on the ball most, which has now evened out with a preference given to Towns, then to Edwards, and then Russell. In this game, it needs to be Towns, Towns and then Towns. Karl-Anthony Towns has been on a tear recently, and ended the season shooting an absurd 41% from 3, the best mark among big men. The Clippers are one of the best small-ball defensive teams in the league, a clip below the Suns and Celtics, but good enough to keep a handle on Edwards and Russell.
Towns has been accused of being a shrinking violet with a propensity for falling in love with the 3 point shot. There’s a kernel of truth in the first part of that accusation, but Towns hasn’t had much of an opportunity to disprove it, which is more due to the fact of the front offices general incompetence (again, 1 playoff series since 2005) than it is his own inability to make the playoffs.
The second part of that is dumb, because of course he’s in love with his 3 point shot, he’s really good at it – he shoots 45% from the top of the key! If Minnesota wins this game, it will be because of a barrage of pick-and-pop 3’s by Towns, which any of George, Powell, Covington or whoever the Clippers use to defend him, will be unable to bother.
Whichever version of the Timberwolves shows up to this game will find themselves facing a team very familiar with the ‘playoff whistle’ – meaning the Clippers are willing to foul the shit out of every player because they know it won’t be called. Minnesota’s best veteran, Pat Beverley, is familiar with the playoff whistle himself, so much that he plays every game like that, but has a habit of the old playoff brain explosion. Bev’s season, and career as a Clipper, ended last year after he was goaded into a two hand push into Chris Paul’s back during a timeout.
This is all assuming Kawhi doesn’t play, which he more than likely won’t, but even without Kawhi I just can’t shake the feeling that if Minnesota wants to make the playoffs, they’ll need to do it in two games.
East Game 2: Atlanta Hawks (9) vs. Charlotte Hornets (10)
This game is going to be an absolute NBA circus. Trae Young and LaMelo Ball are two of the most entertaining players in the league, both young point guards with the confidence of guys who have done it all, who play fast twitch basketball with a mix of ridiculous passing and half-court shots.
This is a proper sudden death game, which means it’s the last opportunity for Trae or LaMelo to show out, and they will absolutely make the most of the opportunity. LaMelo spent the last week of the season filling out his highlight reel with flying between the legs passes, while Charlotte went on a spirited late season run to keep themselves in contention, though it would have taken basically a Chernobyl-level collapse for them to fall out of the play-in and into the marshland occupied by Washington, New York and Indiana.
Charlotte’s respectable 8-4 record in their last 12 games has shown glimpses of what made them such an exciting early season team, with Miles Bridge pounding the lane and continuing to embarass anyone stupid enough to get in his way. That stretch includes consecutive games against Miami and Philly where they gave up 144 points both times, but they also beat Brooklyn and put 133 on the Bulls so it’s not all doom and gloom. This is a fun basketball team with good and exciting players who get along and play well together. If this is the last time we see them then be assured they will go out with a bang.
Even if the Hawks only making the play-in makes this season a failure for a team that had hopes of returning to the Eastern Conference finals, they’re still more or less the same team that took 2 games from Milwaukee, and I have a huge soft spot for them. These guys just couldn’t get out of their own way this season and it’s not as if they’ve had a major injury or a player revolt or coaching overhaul, all of which they had last year – maybe that’s the problem. Regardless of their regular season issues, they’re hosting a sudden death game at home with Trae Young on their team, who has always risen to the occasion in situations like this. The only way Trae could be more locked in for this game is if it was played in Madison Square Garden.
I’m almost melancholy about this game, because it’s got the potential to be one of the best of the season. It’s Trae vs Lamelo in a competition for who can throw the nicest pass; John Collins vs Miles Bridges for who can throw down the biggest dunk; Capela vs Harrell for who can set the most illegal screen. I would like for this game to end up 151-150 at the end of the third overtime.
I’m predicting Atlanta to come out of this game and really take it to the Cavs in the second qualifying game, which they will win if they can just get out of their own way. Please give me the Heat-Hawks series I so desperately crave. I need Trae and Jimmy Butler to clash for an entire series.
West Game 2: New Orleans Pelicans (9) vs. San Antonio Spurs (10)
This is the participation trophy game for two plucky teams who, maybe 5 years ago, would have thrown in the towel and lost every game from January onwards. For New Orleans, there was no reason to tank this season, as they don’t own any of their own draft picks, instead owning the Lakers unprotected first round pick (worth more than solid gold at this point) and Portland’s top 4 protected pick – two teams that performed worse than the Pels. Without incentive to tank, New Orleans picked up the pieces this season and pulled themselves out of the mud which they were practically neck-deep in early this season.
It feels like a lifetime ago that the Pelicans had started the season 3-16, Zion was ‘1 week away’ and no one had heard of Jose Alverado. October and November were full panic station months for New Orleans, when it looked like they might as well just liquidate the team and set up shop in Seattle instead.
With CJ McCollum leading their offense, the Pelicans have partly filled the hole they made themselves when they traded away Jrue Holiday. CJ’s not even close to the defender Jrue is, he’s actually one of the worst in the league, but he’s one of the best shooters out there right now and he’s an underrated and handy playmaker who knows how an offense is supposed to work – like the guy they let walk in free agency, Lonzo Ball.
Despite all the times the Pelicans have shot themselves in the foot, they’ve managed to put together a respectable team which has taken some nice wins in the back half of the season and which stepped up and beat the Lakers twice when they needed to, locking themselves into the play-in and putting the Lakers one foot into the grave. Brandon Ingram yelling “LeBrick” as he’s walking off the floor in the crypto arena should be bronzed and placed as a statue outside the Smoothie King arena.
The Spurs actively tried to avoid this game, trading their second best player in Derrick White to the Celtics for Josh Richardson, who ended up being good for them, as well as giving away Thad Young for literally nothing. The Spurs talent factory proved too good to make a losing team, and they were able to keep themselves above water even without DeJounte Murray in the 3 games they absolutely needed to win to make the play-in.
Speaking of Murray, he is an absolute stud, setting a franchise-record for triple doubles in a season, leading the league in steals and assisting his teammates at a rate that shouldn’t be possible. I’ve already gone through the Murray praise, but he’s so good that it’s worth saying again, this is the guy the Spurs can build another dynasty around.
This will be a tough and scrappy game between these teams, but it will be the least exciting of all the play-in games. Whoever comes out of this will still have a job cut out for them to beat the Timberwolves and make it into the playoffs.
For the rest of the week, once these games are done, I’ll do a proper playoff preview and put together a bracket for how I think the playoffs will end up. Spoiler alert: Dubs in 4 every round baby!
I can’t wait for these games and I’m so keen to watch real sudden-death basketball for the first time in nearly a year. As an appetiser for the playoffs, this is a fantastic set of match-ups.