AN EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREVIEW

In the history of the The Blocked Content, I’ve displayed a definite Western Conference Bias. Therefore, this week, I’m giving some attention to the East – and I’m on holidays and don’t have time to go through the West.

Almost a week since the regular season finished we’ve finally made it to the playoffs. The play-in seemed like a tired concept during the 9/10 games, and I wasn’t keen on watching the Pelicans again, but as dust gathers on the Clippers season following a thrilling elimination game in Los Angeles – the Clippers second chokejob in 3 years – I’m completely on board with the format again. I’m not at all salty that the Clippers choked a lead with 6 minutes to go against the Timberwolves, completely collapsing after Karl-Anthony Towns fouled out and ruining my prediction that they would be outclassed by Los Angeles. I am prepared to own up to my mistakes, that call being one of them, but I won’t let it stop me from launching into a new round of predictions. 

Miami Heat (1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (9)

Miami might be the number 1 seed with the least fanfare of all time. I was in awe of Miami from week 2 onwards, but they just kept doing the same thing all season – great offense, better defense, rack up a bunch of wins. This is a team full of veterans, champions, undrafted guys and competitive psychopaths who will do whatever it takes to win a basketball game. The highest drafted player on this team is Tyler Herro, who was taken 13th in the draft – and they’re top of the East!

As much as I love the Hawks, I’m trying not to overreact to Trae Young’s heroic 32 point second half to bring them into the playoffs; Miami are a far more professional outfit than Clevaland, even if they’ve had a touch of drama recently. I’ve been warning of a potent Hawks outfit outperforming their regular season record in the playoffs and posing a danger to an unsuspecting 1 seed. In preparing for this piece and taking a closer look at the Heat, my hopes that Atlanta could make noise in these playoffs has steadily dissipated. 

You probably remember the Heat bubble team that made the Finals. It was Butler and Bam Adebayo, rookie Tyler Herro and cheap contract Duncan Robinson with a bunch of solid veterans like Goran Dragic. The 2022 Miami Heat are a much improved version of that team. They’ve added a key playmaker in Kyle Lowry, Bam and Herro are better players, Duncan Robinson is still an absurd shooter even if you have to pay him $300k for every shot, and they’ve found Max Strus who can be on the court at the same time as Robinson and match him shot-for-shot. 

Above all, this is a Kyle Lowry safe space. I am here for all Kyle Lowry praise and I will give it willingly, mostly about his giant arse. I want to see as many Kyle Lowry possessions with his back to the basket as possible, just pushing dudes around with his comically large caboose.

The Heat had a tough few games at the beginning of April, losing to the Sixers, Warriors, Knicks and Mavs over a four game stretch. Famously, during a timeout in the Warriors game, coach Eric Spoelstra and Jimmy Butler had to be separated from each other during a shouting match when the team was unable to stop Jonathan Kuminga from getting to the basket in two steps. 

This fight was the opportunity for people to actually talk about the Heat for a moment, but not about how good they are as a team. Really, the fight means nothing – Jimmy Butler is a known psychopath with a habit of tearing his own team apart, and Spo is tough as shit – he’s the only coach in LeBron’s career that has ever stood up to him and didn’t get fired for doing so. 

What does that have to do with this series? Absolutely nothing, but it was more fun than it will be watching Miami give Atlanta a black eye.

Miami have lost Butler, Bam and Lowry for a combined 70 games this season due to injury, and they haven’t missed a beat whenever anyone is missing. Every player knows their role in the offense and how it all works. This is a fine tuned machine ready to rip and tear into the playoffs. 

This is a sweep, Miami are way too good. 

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Brooklyn Nets (7) 

In a league that’s been lacking genuine rivalries of late, this is probably the largest going right now. It’s also the only rivalry where a key part of it involves the accusation that one player stomped on a cartoon leprechaun. The only problem is that none of the players hate each other, even if Boston fans are willing to make up the difference with 48 minutes of “Kyrie sucks” chants whilst Tatum beckons for them to shut up. Add Mr. Bimmons to the roster and Celtics fans, who aren’t necessarily known to show kindness to opposing teams, and they’ve got plenty of ammunition. 

The rivalry also comes with some history, because it’s the inverse of last year’s 2-7 matchup, which saw Brooklyn defeat an unenthusiastic Celtics team in 5 games. Since that series, James Harden has left Brooklyn, Brad Stevens has moved from coach to GM,  and the Celtics have improved upon a roster which is much the same as last season’s, apart from Derrick White. 

Neither team presents any doubt about their scoring ability, with Brooklyn taking the edge for pure scoring ability, while Boston’s pairing are a touch more consistent, at least while Kyrie is still getting his legs under him. 

The question which will decide this series is: can the Celtics defense hold up Durant and Irving in the absence of Robert Williams? 

We just saw Irving make his first 12 shots on his way to a comfortable 34 points against Cleveland in the play-in game, while Durant chimed in for 25 points, reminding the Cavs he was on the floor by hitting back-breaking 3’s whenever the Cavs looked like they were bringing it close. Again: Kevin Durant is not nice. 

Another thing Durant did in the play-in game, which he didn’t have to do during the regular season, was play elite defense; collecting 2 steals and 3 blocks – a total of 5 stocks, a phrase that I hate. Brooklyn will probably use Bruce Brown as the primary defender on Jayson Tatum, but if the defense moves and Durant ends up defending a Tatum isolation, don’t be surprised when KD takes the ball away from him. Tatum has tightened his handle this season, but he doesn’t have the same ball security Durant does, so he can be pressured into turnovers when attempting to drive past a defender. Durant loves throwing his tarantula hands towards the ball and disrupting a possession. 

It will take more than Brown and Durant on defense to hold up Tatum and Brown, and if they hold one up, the offense is good enough to keep moving to find another shot. Boston spent the last month of the season absolutely killing teams on offense, regularly putting 120 or more on teams. For a team that made its way to the second seed on the back of the best defense in the league, their offense has become underrated along the way. This is a team entirely capable of scoring 130 points in four consecutive games and shooting Brooklyn out of the series.

Brooklyn’s other guys are going to have to do plenty of work in this series. Seth Curry and Patty Mills are both capable of hitting big shots in the clutch and Boston will prefer they shoot over Durant or Irving. So long as Brookyln doesn’t roll out the broken skeleton of Blake Griffin, they have quality options on their bench. 

The Nets defense may be significantly bolstered by the addition of Mr. Bimmons (a fictional character who I absolutely did not create to side-step an undertaking I gave not to talk about Ben Simmons again until he actually played competitive basketball). When it comes to Bimmons, who uploaded an instagram story of basketball shoes, it’s a familiar breadcrumb trail to nowhere; but it’s also the same message Kyrie sent before his own return. There are now whispers that he may return in time for game 4 in Brooklyn and, to state the obvious, if Brooklyn adds one of the best defensive players in the league to their team, they will more than likely win this series. 

This is a tough series to pick. Is Brooklyn’s defense so bad that it justifies a Kevin Durant led team losing in the first round? Does the Celtics defense even have an answer for Durant? Durant hasn’t been eliminated from the first round of the playoffs since 2010, but this is the best Boston team for a long time, it’s better than the ‘18 and ‘20 Eastern Conference Finals team. 

If you want to beat Durant, it doesn’t matter who you are, it’s going to take you 7 games. I’m taking Boston in 7, but I will not be in any way surprised if Brooklyn win this. 

Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs. Chicago Bulls (6)

I’m sorry Bulls fans, but it’s an early funeral for DeMar, Lavine and Vuc. Congratulations on making the playoffs and running directly into a once-in-a-generation talent Giannis Antetokounmpo and his buddy Jrue Holiday, the freak defender. 

If you think this series is going to be anything but pure destruction, pull up any Bucks game from the last month and just watch Giannis, no one else. No one has been able to touch him and he’s been scoring completely at will, dunking over guys,  hitting turnaround jumpers, and making 3’s at a semi-reliable clip. There’s no one on this Bulls roster, and maybe not anyone in the league, who can do anything to stop Giannis right now.  

Sure, the Bucks have other important guys on offense, and I mention them now, in particular Khris Middleton, to acknowledge that one of them might also drop 40 in a game. But they all play second, third and fourth fiddle to Giannis.

I didn’t like the Bulls moves in the off-season and trashed them in the pre-season, saying they would be no more than a 6 seed. DeMar DeRozan hit enough incredible game-winners to make me change my tune slightly and give this team some credit for playing really entertaining basketball. Both things can be true here, the Bulls are still playing very entertaining basketball, DeMar is amazing and putting value back into mid-range jumpers, but the Bulls are about to be absolutely slaughtered here. The Bulls still haven’t won a single game against any of the top teams in the East this season.

The Bulls defense has crashed back down to Earth, ending the season ranked 22nd on defense, after hovering in the 7-12 range in the early parts of the season. Meanwhile, the Bucks offense is equal to Phoenix and Memphis. 

Out of respect for DeMar’s resurgence and with the knowledge that a Chicago home crowd is going to go absolutely insane for its first playoff game since 2017, I will give the Bulls one game in this series. I’m calling this a 4-1 win for the Bucks. 

Philadelphia 76ers (4) vs. Toronto Raptors (5)

Now that this is an official Sixers slander publication, it’s time to engage in Sixers slander – Toronto is one of the worst first round matchups for Philly, for a few reasons. First, Matisse Thybulle is unvaccinated and can’t play away games in Toronto, taking away a valuable defensive piece; second, Doc Rivers is looking for a way out of his Philly contract so he can take up with the Lakers – which a loss in this series will practically guarantee; and third, Toronto play four times as hard as Philly and have already beat them 3 times this season, including a recent 119-114 loss on 7 April. 

At least 3 games in this series will be played in the same building where Kawhi closed out a series with a 4-bounce dagger over Embiid; plenty of ghosts haunt the Scotiabank Arena for the Sixers. 

The Raptors have flown under the radar this year. After a slow start to the season, they finished more-or-less in the middle of the road, with the 14th best offense and 10th best defense. They’re a team without a recognisable superstar, Pascal Siakam peaking at an all-star level player, but they’re made up of young, smart players with a combined wingspan long enough to wrap around the equator. 

Scottie Barnes was a surprising pick at number 5 in the 2021 draft, but Toronto’s front office have been proven right already, as Barnes has been outstanding in his rookie year, a ridiculously hard working player with long arms and a great understanding of the game, who is able to make plays within the offense and completely disrupt the other team on defense. Barnes isn’t the main reason the Raptors have made the playoffs, but he’s more than a bit player for the team.

Fred Van Vleet continues to go from strength to strength, and even if he’s a scale lower than the truly elite point guards, your Curry and Kyrie types, he’s one of the best of that second group. Fred will not be overawed by anything that Philadelphia runs out in this series. Not only because he is a veteran and an NBA champion, but because he isn’t scared of anything in the NBA. This is a guy who went undrafted, who fought tooth and nail to make it to the league then became Kyle Lowry’s replacement at a franchise that is about to build Kyle Lowry a fucking statue. 

Once the playoffs start, you might hear commentators saying that a team’s bench gets shorter, because fewer guys get allocated minutes. By the time a team makes the Finals, they will really only play their best 7/8 guys. Raptors coach Nick Nurse has taken that approach from about December. Looking down at their regular season minutes, the Raptors have been running their guys ragged: Van Vleet and Siakam average just under 38 minutes a game, OG Anunoby averages 36, Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent average 35. That’s their entire starting lineup. Their bench minutes are mostly taken up by Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher, Thadd Young and Khem Birch – all bigs. 

Toronto are going to throw plenty of size at Embiid and hope they can force someone else to win the game. Just remind me, who do the Sixers have again as their second-best scorer? Oh wow, it’s James Harden, a former MVP with plenty of playoff experience – let’s check out that playoff experience. Goodness me, it looks like James Harden has choked out of every playoff since 2012! 

Harden has some great playoff lowlights including: setting a playoff record for most turnovers in a playoff game, sitting on the bench with a towel on his head while Dwight Howard, Corey Brewer and Josh Smith bailed the Rockets out in an elimination game (against the Doc Rivers coached Clippers, no less), and contributing 10 of the Rockets record-breaking 27 consecutive missed 3’s in the 2018 Western Conference Finals. I really could go on, an earlier draft of this piece set out every single playoff failure that Harden has been a part of – it went for an entire page. 

Let’s conduct the same exercise for Doc Rivers, holy moly this guy’s had the most game 7 losses of any coach! Again – TBC has taken an anti-Sixers stance. 

In an effort to appear fair and balanced, if Embiid goes on a tear offensively then it won’t matter. Even for all of Toronto’s size and length and defensive goodness, Embiid is better. In the last week of the season, Embiid went on a tour of destruction to put a final note in his case for MVP. This included a tidy 40 & 20 game against Indiana, where he was completely unstoppable. When Embiid is at his best, the only person capable of slowing him down is himself. Embiid faded in plenty of second halves in last year’s playoffs, but he hasn’t had to overcome any significant injury this season so will be more capable of playing heavy playoff minutes. One thing is for sure in this series, he’s going to be seeing plenty of the same guys over and over on defense. 

It’s hard to maintain any Philly slander and make a genuine prediction in this series – Embiid is just so good this year. I would actually feel bad if Embiid was let down by Harden and Doc in this series, he’s played so well while carrying more responsibility than ever. I’m going to credit the Raptors for 2 games, but give the series to Philly in 6 and wait for the Sixers to get bounced in the second round – again. 

In summary, the TBC Eastern first round is predicted to go:
Miami beats Atlanta in 4 games
Boston beats Brooklyn in 7 games
Milwuakee beats Chicago in 5 games
Philadelpdhia beats Toronto in 6 games.

More than anything, I’m just excited for playoff basketball.